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| DP / DC, 6X Odds | 8 votes (36.36%) |
| DP / DC only, no Odds | 3 votes (13.63%) |
| DP only, 6X Odds | 5 votes (22.72%) |
| DC only, 6X Odds | 1 vote (4.54%) |
| DP only, no Odds | 2 votes (9.09%) |
| DC only, no Odds | 2 votes (9.09%) |
| Pass / DP, 6X Odds | No votes (0%) |
| Pass / DP, 2-4-6X Odds | 1 vote (4.54%) |
22 members have voted
I've been following the Wizard's site for a couple months now trying to learn about craps. In my opinion, he does a great job explaining why the Dark Side is statistically the better option. I've even watched his video on YouTube about how he suggests betting DP / DC with 6X Odds backing each bet. I can understand, generally, why you would want to milk these odds for all they're worth and have spent hours practicing on the WoO's craps simulator and on my cell phone's craps app (also Bovada's, but they don't seem to allow 6X Odds for some reason). Using the Wizard's method, I am usually able to double my money pretty consistently and have had a lot of fun with it to the point where I consider myself a true Darksider. :)
If you'd rather not read through this whole post and just cut to the chase, I've listed several possible betting strategies in the poll above and would like some feedback on which you think are more effective.
My question, however, is in regards to an answer the Wizard gave on his section on craps:
Let's say you have a $10 don't pass bet and the point is a 4. You have a 2/3 chance of winning the bet, so the expected value is (2/3)*$10 + (1/3)*-$10 =$ 10/3 = $3.33. Now consider adding a $40 odds bet on top of it. Now you have a 2/3 chance of winning $30 and a 1/3 chance of losing $50. The expected value of both bets combined is (2/3)*$30 + (1/3)*-$50 = $10/3 = $3.33. So either way your expected gain is 3 dollars and 33 cents. With the don't pass alone the player edge is $3.33/$10 = 33.33%. With the don't pass and odds the player edge is $3.33/$50 = 6.67%. So, yes, the player edge as a percentage drops by making the odds bet. However that player edge is effective over more money. The way I think gamblers should view the house edge is as the price to pay for entertainment. If you want to pay as little as possible then taking or laying the odds is getting entertainment for free.
If I am understanding this correctly, the expected payout of a Dark Side player is $3.33 per bet, regardless of whether you take odds or not, and that the Wizard only recommends taking odds because you effectively see more action for the same price.
So far, I've found 100-units worth of bankroll to be quite comfortable in dealing with any hot streaks; though I imagine that when I go to the tables, I will likely only have 20- to 40-units of bankroll, so I have been practicing with that as well. Thus, I have been trying to push the limits of Dark Side betting to see what the minimum I need to take with me is, while still feeling comfortable.
Assuming the above is true regarding $3.33 gain per roll regardless of whether you take odds or not, it would seem that I can get the same effect by just playing DP / DC without odds and not break my bank. Is my thinking correct? It'd help to know the odds to see how much luck has affected my practice runs.
This also got me thinking on some other Darksider strategies and what the best Darksider system might be, for high or low bankroll. One appealing system I saw on www.crapsforum.com was to bet one unit on Pass and one on DP to effectively nullify the effect of the come out roll, losing one unit every 36 rolls, on average, due to the 12 Bar. Once the point is made, however, the odds are in the favor of the DP and so you lay odds. This gets more convoluted for balancing the DC, so for now I've chosen to just stick with those two. But the overall idea is in hedging your bets, while still capitalizing on the DP's advantage using odds after the point is made. The reward is less, but so is the risk, it seems.
Here, I have tried laying 6X Odds - as the Wizard suggests - on the DP, but I found that this requires a much heftier bankroll and have started playing instead with 2X Odds on the 6,8; 4X Odds on the 5,9; and 6X Odds on the 4,10. This is a lot kinder to my bankroll, but I am wondering which set of odds in this case has the better, well . odds, as well as the better payout. Also, how these two methods stack up against the DP / DC and DP / DC with Odds methods.
So just to recap, some things I'm trying to focus on:
- Darksider betting.
- Odds vs. no Odds.
- Neutralizing the Come Out.
- Accounting for small bankroll.
- Minimizing House Edge.
- Maximizing return on investment.
Any feedback on this would be great. Thanks in advance. :)
My question, however, is in regards to an answer the Wizard gave on his section on craps:
If I am understanding this correctly, the expected payout of a Dark Side player is $3.33 per bet, regardless of whether you take odds or not, and that the Wizard only recommends taking odds because you effectively see more action for the same price.
He was comparing a dont4 ONCE it made it to the number4 to the same bets WITH Lay Odds.
This was to show that the EV of laying the odds does not change compared to not laying the odds. Duh.
$3.33 is just for a dont4 or 10 after it is on the number.
Do the math to see what it is BEFORE it gets to the number.
The Wizard Of Odds Craps
Hint: 8 ways to lose $X and 3 ways to win $XAlso your Doey/Don't system is just that, another system.
It has been discussed here (WoV) in other threads.
IMO, Not much good actually comes out of the www.crapsforum.com unless you are an upcoming DI believer
Read on, especially posts by goatcabin.
Your Bankroll is very important to how much fun you will have playing Craps.
If you are always buying in for $100-$200 and making bets between $25 to $50 each roll, enjoy your short stay at the tables.
Others will chip in
Good Luck!
My experience has been that 40-units no odds works because, essentially, I am making a $25 bet versus a $70 bet ($10 + 6X Odds). Thus, my game is about three times as long, with the House Edge only being marginally higher (due to less payout).
This brings me to another question: If bankroll is an issue, is it better to take the odds and wager 7 units a roll (bet plus 6X Odds), or to skip the odds and place a larger flat bet that is less than those 7 units? I'm not really a statistician, but could someone tell me at what point those two would be equal? As in, how high would the no odds bet have to be in order to match the payout of the full odds bet. Is this even possible?
Also, I'm not looking for DI. I feel that the odds of it having any effect when I need it would not really be worth the years of practice and that my skill points would be better spent elsewhere. :/
If I am understanding this correctly, the expected payout of a Dark Side player is $3.33 per bet, regardless of whether you take odds or not, and that the Wizard only recommends taking odds because you effectively see more action for the same price.
.sort of. The expected loss of a Dark Side player is 27/1925 your bet per round (not counting twelves), regardless of whether you take odds or not, and he recommends it because you see more action for the same price.
Honestly, you're going to get a lot of flak for the doey-don't, but think of it as a cheaper lay bet. It's probably good for your bankroll due to the fact that you'll win significantly more rounds than you'll lose. One thing you might want to consider instead is laying the 4 and/or 10, but only if commission is paid on a win only.
'Return on investment' sets up a bit of a red flag, though, because you should realize that the return on your investment is negative.
Wolf run casino game free download.
Read on, especially posts by goatcabin.
Haven't seen goatcabin on any forum in quite awhile.
- Darksider betting.
Big win free slots. - Odds vs. no Odds.
- Neutralizing the Come Out.
- Accounting for small bankroll.
- Minimizing House Edge.
- Maximizing return on investment.
Dark Side betting is but a smidgen different than Right Side betting. Slightly better chance of winning, slightly higher bankroll requirement to do it correctly.
Odds versus No Odds-- That's simple. Always have an odds bet down if you are going to win and never have an odds bet down if you are going to lose. What? You don't know in advance? Well, that is the whole point. They offer and odds bet at zero house edge. Not an offer a casino usually makes. Its to induce you to effectively increase your wager. Your choice. Plain and simple.
Neutralizing the come out-- Ain't no way to 'neutralize' the roll of the dice, you mean to dilute its effect by committing the unpardonable sin of hedging your bets.
Minimizing House Edge. The house edge is what it is. It ain't gonna be getting maximized or minimized. It simply is.
Maximizing return on Investment-- That's an easy one. Thirty five dollars to the cocktail waitress and twenty minutes in the shadowy recesses of the beverage alcove where the surveillance cameras won't film her activities with you.
Since it sounds like you have never played craps in a casino, let me set some expectations for you. Since you have been playing the simulators, I would hope you are already aware that your expected loss, is not going to be close to your actual loss. Depending on your bet levels, your expected loss for a couple of hours play could be in the $20-$40 range. In reality, you could lose $200 in the first 30 minutes.
The important thing is to realize you will probably lose, and possibly lose more than the math expects you to lose.
Once you have that realization, then you are ready to play. And this site is great at explaining why making the best bets is important. But, in the end, your session result is 100% going to be reliant on the numbers that get thrown during your time of play. I have been on tables where the Right side players were losing our butts, yet the Darkside player standing next to me was getting killed too! (Those come out 7 and 11s were chewing up their DP progressions). I have lost $400 playing perfect PL and Come bets, while the dummy next to me bet the Horn High Aces every throw (~16.7% house edge) and walked away up $400.
Craps is a great game. However, besides the relatively low house edge, the other great aspect about craps is the social interaction in the game. When you are the shooter and make your point, and everyone on the table is cheering you, or fist bumping, or high fiving, that adds to the rush. This is not something that you will get from the simulators. As a darksider, you will not get to experience that same type of camaraderie, unless you happen to get a table of all Dont players.
As a Don't player, you may be treated nicely by the player next to you, or you may draw absolute scorn and snide remarks. I have seen it all, from Don't players readily accepted at a table, to tables that were openly hostile to a Don't player.
Obviously, this makes no difference to the math of your bets, but it could have a real impact on whether or not you enjoy your first craps experience.
I will admit I am biased toward Right side play. I will play the Don't at times when nothing is working for me, but even when I am winning money that way, I don't really enjoy my playing time. I have even been on tables where 100% of us were playing the Dark side, so we were all cheering the 7 outs, but it still wasn't fun.
You can explain to the Right way player next to you why your betting the Dark side is a superior way to play according to the math, but chances are the player will have no clue what you are talking about.
I could go on for another two pages, but I won't. Whether you play Right or Dark is up to you, and either way is a good way to go. Just be aware that the social aspect of craps is going to come into play at the casino (unless you play on one of the bubble games, or the e- Craps games that have betting monitors). In my opinion, the social part of the game is going to have way more bearing on your 'fun factor' than whether you win or lose money.
Best of luck to you at the tables!
Wizard Of Odds Craps Game
Neutralizing the come out-- Ain't no way to 'neutralize' the roll of the dice, you mean to dilute its effect by committing the unpardonable sin of hedging your bets.
Yes, that is what I meant. Of course you can't completely neutralize it because the 12 loses on Pass but doesn't win on Don't Pass.
Minimizing House Edge. The house edge is what it is. It ain't gonna be getting maximized or minimized. It simply is.
Again, correct. I guess I just seem to be mixing up some lingo. What I meant was playing a strategy that would result in the lowest house edge, which you already noted was Laying Odds.
Maximizing return on Investment-- That's an easy one. Thirty five dollars to the cocktail waitress and twenty minutes in the shadowy recesses of the beverage alcove where the surveillance cameras won't film her activities with you.
Lol! I shall have to try this strategy too. ;)
Since it sounds like you have never played craps in a casino, let me set some expectations for you. Since you have been playing the simulators, I would hope you are already aware that your expected loss, is not going to be close to your actual loss. Depending on your bet levels, your expected loss for a couple of hours play could be in the $20-$40 range. In reality, you could lose $200 in the first 30 minutes.
Mermaid slot games. The important thing is to realize you will probably lose, and possibly lose more than the math expects you to lose.
Oh, not to worry. I'm well aware of that. I've had sessions where the dice were on fire and I couldn't catch a 7 until after losing about $300. I've had other sessions where I would lose about $150, break even, lose $150, break even, for a while. I've had sessions where $1000 went to ruin. Some where $2000 went to ruin!
But these are all reasons I am trying to practice and develop a strategy that gets the odds as well in my favor as I can for the conditions I face. Hence, the whole reason I'm here. :)
Also, thanks for the advice on the social aspect of craps. Much appreciated.
This is hard to grasp, but the only way the whole business of free odds makes sense is if the total amount of money bet is the same. In other words, what sense does it make to lower the HE if you are not also lowering the expected loss for the session? Since you can't lower the expected loss with the free odds on a particular single bet, that means you must have fewer total bets using the odds OR you have simply decided to be someone who bets a lot more money whenever he gambles. A guy who hints he is uncomfortable with the needed bankroll is a guy who is doing the latter and it isn't the right thing for him.
That statement, 'the free odds do not help you make more money', is a little irritating in that it needs explanation, and is a sort of slap in the face for all of us who take free odds [me too], does however succinctly state something you might as well attempt to grasp.
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Ive seen some people play the iron cross in live play as well as make some videos on youtube about it. In both instances i observe that the basic problem arises when you bet on the 5 6 8 and the field simultaneously. you will lose in the field if the top of the cross hits and wont hit enough on the bottom to make it worth it in the field. If you want to bet both the 5 6 8 and field numbers then split your field bet numbers on the prop bets which pay more. they are still one roll bets and you get paid more to boot. the only other numbers you get any action on in the field is the 4 9 and 10. in which case you get odds placing and buying. so the whole logic behind playing the cross doesnt make sense to me from an odds perspective of getting more for each dollar you bet.
There are four possible scenarios for the Iron Cross wager, based on the two most important criteria affecting the house advantage, viz-a-viz whether the Field 12 pays 2:1 or 3:1 and whether Buys collect commissions on every bet or just on wins:
Scenario 1: The Field 12 only pays double and Buy bets surrender commission on every resolution, win or lose
In this case, you'll Place (rather than Buy) the 5 @ $5 a pop, Place $6 on each the Six and the 8, and Field bet $5 per roll. The total amount bet will be $5 x 10 5-box resolutions in 36 rolls = $50, $6 x 2 x 11 = $132 on the Six and 8, and $5 x 36 = $180 on the Field, or $362 in all. In 36 rolls, the return will be $48 from the 5, $130 from the Six and 8, and $170 from the Field, or $348 in all, a deficit of $14, and thus a house edge E = -$14/$362 = -3.867%.
Scenario 2: The Field 12 only pays double, but Buy bets surrender commission only on wins
Here, Buying the 5 at $21 (
Wizard Of Odds Craps Version 2
Scenario 3: The Field 12 pays triple, but Buy bets surrender commission on every win or lossThe results here are the same as those for 1, except for the increased Field 12 pay, or only $9 lost, and a diminished E = -2.486%.
Scenario 4: The Field 12 pays triple and Buy bets only surrender commission on wins
The optimal situation, returning $20 more than 2, or losing only $32 out of $1,458, and minimizing E = -2.195%.
Clearly, the biggest contributor to frugalizing the Iron Cross system is the presence of the Triple-12 Field.
when the fields pays 3x12 the bet becomes a better bet than placing the 5 & 9.
HOWEVER... the casino makes its money by paying you less than proper odds on
all your bets.
Even if you hit your number , the casino has a built in vig..
So you play the iron cross, what happens.
for every $100 you bet on the 4 & 10 the casino keeps $6.67
for every $100 you bet on 5 & 9 ( the casino keeps $4.00
for every $100 you bet on 6 & 8 the casino keeps $1.52
for every $100 you bet on field, the casino keeps $2.78 ( 3x12) or $5.56 at 2x12
Now you can improve that with buys on certain numbers. but that can also add to your average bet.
Under the right conditions any system may work, but in the long run, as you increase your number of bets
you will increase your expected loss per roll.
Dicesetter
Wizard Of Odds Craps Version 2
Scenario 3: The Field 12 pays triple, but Buy bets surrender commission on every win or lossThe results here are the same as those for 1, except for the increased Field 12 pay, or only $9 lost, and a diminished E = -2.486%.
Scenario 4: The Field 12 pays triple and Buy bets only surrender commission on wins
The optimal situation, returning $20 more than 2, or losing only $32 out of $1,458, and minimizing E = -2.195%.
Clearly, the biggest contributor to frugalizing the Iron Cross system is the presence of the Triple-12 Field.
when the fields pays 3x12 the bet becomes a better bet than placing the 5 & 9.
HOWEVER... the casino makes its money by paying you less than proper odds on
all your bets.
Even if you hit your number , the casino has a built in vig..
So you play the iron cross, what happens.
for every $100 you bet on the 4 & 10 the casino keeps $6.67
for every $100 you bet on 5 & 9 ( the casino keeps $4.00
for every $100 you bet on 6 & 8 the casino keeps $1.52
for every $100 you bet on field, the casino keeps $2.78 ( 3x12) or $5.56 at 2x12
Now you can improve that with buys on certain numbers. but that can also add to your average bet.
Under the right conditions any system may work, but in the long run, as you increase your number of bets
you will increase your expected loss per roll.
Dicesetter
The basic problem with the 'iron cross' is that every one of the bets in it is negative expectation.
Awww . You say that like it's a bad thing.
Free grease slots. The basic problem with the 'iron cross' is that every one of the bets in it is negative expectation.
That's not a problem peculiar to the Iron Cross; that's the problem with betting in any casino, period.
iron cross
when the fields pays 3x12 the bet becomes a better bet than placing the 5 & 9.
HOWEVER... the casino makes its money by paying you less than proper odds on
all your bets.
Even if you hit your number , the casino has a built in vig..
So you play the iron cross, what happens.
for every $100 you bet on the 4 & 10 the casino keeps $6.67
for every $100 you bet on 5 & 9 ( the casino keeps $4.00
for every $100 you bet on 6 & 8 the casino keeps $1.52
for every $100 you bet on field, the casino keeps $2.78 ( 3x12) or $5.56 at 2x12
That's when your making these bets separately. Each of these bets resolves at a different average rate (each 4- or 10-box every four rolls; each 5- or 9-box every 3.6 rolls; each 6- or 8-box every 3.27 rolls, The Field, every roll), so your comparison is apples to pomegranates to oranges to kiwis. The Iron Cross is a coverage bet, with a single-roll and a multi-roll component, combining separate wagers, each one with its own NX, but each is weighted differently because none resolve the same number of times in the Cycle of Rolls. The numbers don't lie - on a liberal Triple-pay-12 Field table, $1,000 bet consistently on the Iron Cross is expected to only lose about $22 or $25. I can live with that.
Bet every easy way for one unit each (15 units) and you win one unit every time you don't roll a pair!
EASY PEEZIE!
You win 5 out of 6 rolls JUST LIKE THE IRON CROSS but you ALWAYS WIN THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT. So there's nothing confusing about it!
If you understand why you might not want to bet this way, but you don't understand why you might not want to bet the iron cross, consider that the composite edge per roll or the iron cross is ten times as high as a max odds strategy, just like EASY PEEZIE(sm) has an edge that is ten times as high as the Iron Cross.
I'll be selling a book called 'MAKING CRAPS EASY THE EASY PEEZIE WAY.' The book is only $19.99 if you pre-order now.
If you like the Iron Cross, you'll love the easy peezie.
Bet every easy way for one unit each (15 units) and you win one unit every time you don't roll a pair!
EASY PEEZIE!
You win 5 out of 6 rolls JUST LIKE THE IRON CROSS but you ALWAYS WIN THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT. So there's nothing confusing about it!
If you understand why you might not want to bet this way, but you don't understand why you might not want to bet the iron cross, consider that the composite edge per roll or the iron cross is ten times as high as a max odds strategy, just like EASY PEEZIE(sm) has an edge that is ten times as high as the Iron Cross.
I'll be selling a book called 'MAKING CRAPS EASY THE EASY PEEZIE WAY.' The book is only $19.99 if you pre-order now.
